Washington Kurdish Institute
By: David Philips Febreuary 2, 2019
Syrian Democracy Forces (SDF) were shocked when President Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria. But the decision itself was no surprise. U.S. officials have been telegraphing plans to withdraw for months. However, the way the decision was taken, in consultation with Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan and communicated by Trump via twitter, was bewildering. It is reckless and fraught with unforeseeable outcomes. Without a plan for stabilizing northern Syria, gains against the Islamic State (Daesh) may be lost. If Turkey attacks, as Erdogan has promised, a humanitarian emergency will result.
I visited Washington, DC last week to share impressions of my recent visit to northern Syria. During meetings with National Security Council and State Department officials and on Capitol Hill, I found a consensus emerging on U.S. goals: destroy Daesh remnants in Syria and protect the Kurds from Turkish forces. Here’s a four-point plan to advance these goals, while meeting the president’s objective to draw down U.S. forces in Syria.
Continue Security Cooperation with the SDF
The recent suicide bombing that killed four Americans in Manbij demonstrates that Daesh isn’t dead yet. There are still more than 20,000 fighters who control small pockets of territory in Deir ez-Zor and elsewhere along the Iraq-Syria border. Constant pressure will be needed to destroy Daesh. The SDF, with Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) at its core, is capable. The Kurds have a self-interest in vanquishing Daesh, but they need the tools to do the job. The U.S. should continue to equip the SDF and provide close air support, which is critical to SDF ground operations.
Control the Air Space
While controlling the skies over Northern Syria, the U.S. would prevent other countries from entering the air space. Russian air craft can be constrained through the de-confliction channel. The real risk comes from Turkey, which has vowed to attack so-called Kurdish “terrorists.” In January 2018, Turkey bombed Afrin west of the Euphrates for 58 days before Kurds finally surrendered the city. Without Turkish air power, Turkey’s jihadist proxy, the Free Syrian Army, would lose a fair fight with the YPG.
Deploy International Monitors
Erdogan proposed that Turkey would stabilize and provide security in Northern Syria. Handing over Giving Turkey responsibility for a “safe zone” would be a fool’s errand. The wolf must cannot be trusted to guard the chicken coop. As U.S. troops rotate out, an International Monitoring Mission (IMM) should rotate into a security zone along the Syria-Turkey border. British and French are already deployed west of the Euphrates. Other personnel, including Americans, could join the IMM, which would serve as the eyes and ears of the international community, helping to deter Turkey’s aggression. The IMM could be established through a resolution of the UN Security Council. If Russia balks, a “coalition of the willing” could act as international monitors.
Support UN Mediation
These measures would help stabilize Northern Syria. However, sustainable peace requires political dialogue between the Government of Syria and the Kurds. Syria’s civil war will end when there is a constitutional arrangement to devolve power from Damascus to the regions. A ceasefire and political agreement between Damascus and the Kurds in North and East Syria would be a precedent for conflict resolution elsewhere in the country.
The Trump administration abhors President Bashar al-Assad. He is rightly viewed as a pariah because of his heinous war crimes, including the systematic use of chemical weapons against civilians. It is a bitter pill to swallow, but Washington must face the fact that Assad has won the war and accept efforts by the international community to deal with him in the future.
During my visit to northern Syria last month, America’s partners voiced concern over the U.S. withdrawal. They understand that the U.S. won’t stay in Syria forever, but believe that precipitous withdrawal would create a vacuum to be filled by bad actors, exacerbating conflict. They advise smart and strategic engagement, enabling the U.S. to achieve its security and humanitarian objectives while creating an opportunity for more effective diplomacy to end Syria’s long national nightmare.
David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and Human Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He has worked as a senior adviser to the United Nations Secretariat and as a foreign affairs expert and senior advisor to the U.S. Department of State. His previous publications include An Uncertain Ally: Turkey under Erdogan’s Dictatorship; The Kurdish Spring and Losing Iraq. He writes regularly for publications including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, International Herald Tribune, and Foreign Affairs.
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